I learned about the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) when I first read The Wisdom of Crowds. The IEM is a prediction market that works similar to the stock market, except what is being traded is election results. Historically, the IEM has been more accurate than polling data at predicting the eventual outcome.
When I looked this morning, Barack Obama is favored to win by ten points:
I’m fascinated by things like prediction markets…
2 comments:
Intrade does the same thing, with the same results. I think McCain has already lost it.
I know it's improper netiquette to pitch you a story in a comment on your blog, but I could find no other contact info for you (deliberately, on your part, I'm sure). anyways, now that I have you on the line: I'd like to pitch you a story about Piqqem, a web app that applies the wisdom of crowds to stock market predictions. based on the title of your blog, um, I figured you'd be interested! please get in touch at sgerson@piqqem.com and/or snoop around the site Piqqem.com to get a feel. thanks!
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